A presentation by Prof. Erik van der Marel (ECIPE, Université Libre de Bruxelles and College of Europe). This event is part of the Digital Governance Research Colloquium hosted by the Centre for Digital Governance.
This presentation will be based on a policy brief that examines how the EU’s increasingly stringent data- and AI-governance frameworks are limiting its digital-trade potential at a time when other major economies are scaling up. The findings suggest that without targeted adjustments to cross-border data rules and greater international alignment, the EU risks constraining its competitiveness in global digital markets. In particular, the authors estimate that since 2018, the GDPR’s cross-border data-transfer provisions have reduced EU digital-services trade by roughly 10 per cent, affecting both imports and exports and therefore weakening Europe’s position in international digital value chains. The Brief proposes several policy options to strengthen Europe’s digital competitiveness:
- Modernise GDPR cross-border safeguards while maintaining robust data-protection standards where they have a limited trade impact.
- Expand the EU’s adequacy framework to key partners – a step that could increase digital-services trade by up to 9 per cent, with additional gains where the United States is included.
- Ensure coherence between the GDPR and the AI Act, introducing a parallel AI adequacy mechanism to avoid duplicative compliance burdens for firms handling personal data in AI systems.
- Deepen Digital Partnership Agreements, noting that even non-binding cooperation on data, AI, competition, and standards can raise AI-related trade by up to 9 per cent.
This policy brief draws on research already published as working papers, including one peer-reviewed study, listed below:
- Sisto, E. and E. van der Marel (2025) “Privacy at a Price? An Empirical Analysis of GDPR’s Impact on EU Trade Flows”, ECIPE Occasional Paper No. 11/2025, ECIPE, Brussels.
- Ferracane, M, B Hoekman, E van der Marel and F Santi (2025) “Digital Trade, Data Protection and the EU Adequacy Club”, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19882. CEPR Press, Paris & London, forthcoming in LSE’s Economica.
- Sisto, E. and E. van der Marel (2025) “The Trade Effects of AI Provisions in PTAs: Does Non-binding matter?”, ECIPE Occasional Paper No. 12/2025, ECIPE, Brussels.
Prof. Erik van der Marel is Chief Economist at ECIPE, Associate Professor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) and College of Europe, and Senior Economist Consultant at the World Bank. His areas of expertise are in digital trade, services trade, cross-border data flows, and trade policy. Erik also works on the Digital Trade Integration (DTI) protect at the European University Institute (EUI). Prior to his appointment at ECIPE, Erik was lecturing full-time at the London School of Economics (LSE) where he taught international trade at the post-graduate level. In the past, Erik also gained professional experience as a consultant and advisor to the OECD, APEC, ADB, ITC, and the World Bank Trade Research Department. Erik received his PhD in economics from Sciences-Po Paris and did his post-doctorate at the LSE. Erik has published peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, working papers and reports, and made contributions to ECIPE, the World Bank, ITC and ADBI on digital trade and services, domestic regulations in digital services trade, and data flows. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, the Financial Times, Politico, among other outlets.
